A weak Friday to end up the week. The only thing that ended up were Soybeans, up 2.75 cents. Everything else was down: Corn down -2.50 cents, Wheat down -3.00 cents in Chicago, -1.75 cent in Kansas and -8.00 cents in Minneapolis. In Europe, also a day where the mood switch to “maybe we are over panicking over the weather” and MATIF Wheat moved down -€1.25 and London Feed -£1.05. Market are very nervous and nothing much to say apart from weather, rain, soil moisture are under scrutiny in the US and Black Sea. Funds sold 10,000 Corn on Friday as well as 2,000 Wheat but were on the buy side on Soybeans for 2,000 lots.
This was an eventful week, pure weather market. The uncertainty is now really only focused on Russia. It’s now integrated in the prices that winter wheat in the US is going to be far from good, and if rains are coming now in the Midwest, spring crops could well avoid any damage. So focus on FSU and especially Russia. USDA sees a cut of -12.99MT year on year, to 72MT. There was some disbelief at the start but with adverse weather conditions, it gained some credibility. Should it be actually worse, it will drive international markets for sure, and June is the key month… Wait and see, watch the sky!
ICE Canola moved down -1.27% in US dollar last week (with USDCAD down -0.18%) with MATIF Rapeseed in line (-1.22% in US dollar, with EURUSD up +0.09%). Soy complex was down in Chicago with Soybeans down -1.94%, SoyOil -0.48% and SoyMeal -1.60%. Corn was down -3.57% in Chicago and MATIF was in line, -3.01% in US dollar. Wheat was all over the place with Chicago down -3.64%, Kansas down -4.12% and Minneapolis down -6.25%. The Minneapolis premium ended the week to 63.25 cents to Kansas and 80.75 cents to Chicago… It was $2 not very long ago! On the other side of the Pond. MATIF was down -0.45% in US dollar and London Feed Wheat was up +0.30% in US dollar (with GBPUSD up +0.30%, in other words, it was flat in British Pounds).
In Chicago, funds moved back to a long position as of Tuesday. Over the CFTC COT week, funds bought 17,003 lots of Wheat and are now long 15,318 lots. They also bought Corn and Soybeans, respectively 2,457 lots and 8,870 lots, increasing their long position to respectively 202,427 lots and 107,098 lots. From Wednesday to Friday, they were back selling, selling an estimated 8,000lots of Wheat, 33,000 lots of Corn and 9,000 lots of Soybeans.
While there is still some shambles in Egypt around the two cargoes of AOS sold to GASC that have not arrived yet, Egypt is bringing a case against, amongst others, the Vice President of the GASC, for pudically described “financial and administrative violation”. They, quite obviously, deny any wrongdoing. Iraq is seeking 50,000T of wheat through tender, from US and Australia. Iraq is buying most of its wheat outside tender process anyway. On top of that, the arrested Russian vessel with ergot has been retested and vessel was accepted. GASC must be careful and not impact the traders’ appetite, it is several year they are on a slippery slope.
European Commission cuts it all! Barley production is cut by -0.3MT to 61MT, corn by -0.1MT to 63.9MT and wheat by -1.25MT to 140.25MT. If a warm Aprli has accelerated crop development, a dry may starts to impact the yields.
Eurozone PPI expected at +0.2% later today. This data is not major anyway as France and Germany is already released. EU Sentix Investor Confidence Index was just released at 9.3, below last month (19.2) and far below expectations (18.6). UK Construction PMI was better than expected to 52.5, flat month on month. On Friday, EU Final Manufacturing PMI was 55.5 as expected, 54.4 in the UK (better than expected). In the US NFP was better than expected to 223k, Unemployment Rate a tick better than expected to 3.8%. ISM Manufacturing was also better than expected at 58.7. EURUSD is trading higher, around 1.1710, GBPUSD is also trading higher, in a lower extent, around 1.3370. GBPEUR is down, trading around 1.1415.