A softer Friday overall to end up an eventful week with blood, sweat and tears; big ranges,… Soybeans ended down -5.00 cents, Wheat down -6.75 cents in Chicago, -6.25 cents in Kansas and -5.00 cents in Minneapolis. MATIF just ticked down and London Feed ended down -£0.55. Only Corn managed to keep the head out of the water with +1.50 cent. In Chicago, Funds sold 5,000 lots of Soybeans, 5,500 lots of Wheat and bought 8,500 lots of Corn.
It was quite a week indeed… Fears on soybeans and corn crop are slowly fading (but careful, it seems like market is keen on waiting for the next bullish catalyst) and wheat was following but lagging as fears are far from vanishing. Maybe market has overreacted and some profit taking is quite necessary but rains are also more than necessary in Black Sea to prevent from another bullish wave. Soybeans printed -5.09% over the week, -4.38% for SoyMeal and -2.15% for SoyOil. Corn was down -3.51% in Chicago and -1.01% in US dollar on MATIF (EURUSD was up +0.91%). Wheat was down -0.62% in Chicago. -0.46% in Kansas and -1.90% in Minneapolis (premium ended at 54.25 cents to Kansas and 72.50 cents to Chicago). In Europe, MATIF Wheat was up +1.45% in US dollar and London Feed up +1.96% in US dollar (GBPUSD was up +0.47%). Europe failed to correct significantly as they are praying for a bad crop in Russia to regain some market share.
A big miss from Reuters on the CFTC COT! On the week ending Tuesday funds sold more corn than expected, they were expected to be seller of 51,500 lots and they actually sold 88,828 lots, reducing their long position to 113,599 lots. Similarly, on Soybeans, funds sold 34,799 lots (only 23,500 lots were expected) reducing their long position to 72,299 lots… But it was against Wheat as it was expected to see the funds seller of 17,000 lots but the actually bought 968 lots, failing to move back to a short position and actually increasing their long position to 16,286 lots. From Wednesday to Friday, funds were buyer of 8,000 lots of Wheat and seller of 27,000 lots of Corn and 28,500 lots of Soybeans.
Night session very quiet so far with Corn and Soybeans barely ticking down. Meanwhile, Wheat is still quite strong with +1.00 cent to +3.00 cents across the markets. In Europe, MATIF is also barely a tick down and London Feed is expected down -£0.50.
Syria is seeking 200,000T of wheat from Russia, Bulgaria or Romania. In the Iraq tender, the Australian wheat is the leader with $313.75 CNF offered. Last week, the GASC cancelled the purchase of the 2 vessels from AOS that were nowhere to be seen… We probably won’t know the full story there…
Messy currencies this morning with EURUSD trading up just below 1.18 after G7, GBPUSD is down below 1.3375 while GBPEUR cross rate is down around 1.1330. USDCAD is up just below 1.2975. Kids on the playground… Everyone is blaming US President for not signing the Communiqué but US feels they have been stabbed in the back by Canada who has described they trade policy as insulting. Meanwhile, French President could only think about taking his handshake revenge. In the UK, PM Theresa May is facing – again – challenges before key Brexit votes. One thing one cannot challenge Theresa May on is her resilience… She’s still there! But most probably, even though she’s challenged and bullied from inside her party and from labour, probably nobody actually wants to take the hot Brexit potatoes… UK Manufacturing Production was down -1.4% month on month, third month down in a row.