On Friday, if Soybeans rebounded sharply, they however failed reclosing above 900 cents: +14 cents to 894.50 on the N8 contract. Corn was just ticking up while the other attraction of the day was more Wheat, -4.00 cents in Chicago, -4.50 cents in Kansas and -3.75 cents in Minneapolis (premium ended at 57.75 cents over Chicago and 60.25 cents over Kansas). Funds sold 4,000 Corn, 2,000 Wheat and bought 12,000 Soybeans.
Another week to give the boak to even the strongest stomachs. Soybeans printed -1.21%, SoyMeal +0.06% and SoyOil -0.98%. Corn was down -1.11% in Chicago and +0.11% on MATIF in US dollar (although EURUSD was up +0.41%, therefore in local currency, MATIF Corn was down -0.30%. On Wheat, another week of free fall, -1.65% in Chicago, -5.96% in Kansas, -3.81% in Minneapolis. On the oher side of the Pond, MATIF Wheat was down -0.42% and the only market up in local currency (+0.79% in British Pound) and US dollar (+0.68%) was London Feed Wheat as market is sometimes losing a bit of correlation due to its insularity and it’s currently dry… The driest June so far on record. Crops are however in a good state and can bear one more week of dryness, however higher temperatures are bringing the risk of not containing the protein.
One of the lesson of the week is that Russian wheat is getting too expensive as GASC booked 240kT of Romanian wheat. This will be a story to follow as if Russian wheat is doing ‘less worse’ than expected, any lost tender will be a price loss potential. But so far, it is dry, although a couple of matches were played under the rain (only watching the World Cup for weather analysing purpose…).
CFTC COT (on a week ending Tuesday) was less bearish than expected as funds sold less than thought. They sold 15,655 lots of Wheat (31,500 lots expected), just enough to move to a short position of 752 lots, they sold 50,254 lots of Corn (96,500 lots expected), moving to a short position of 14,038 lots, and they sold 25,671 lots of Soybeans (58,000 lots expected) moving to a short of 12,801 lots. But this is a hat trick, Wheat, Corn and Soybeans have all been sold heavily, all moving from long to short (aggregated short of 27,591 lots). What a season for funds!
Night session is starting on a bearish note across the board, with Soybeans down -9.25 cents, Corn down -3.00 cents and Wheat down -11.75 cents in Chicago. MATIF has just opened and no surprise, it followed the US, taking a -€2.00 dip. London Feed is down in a lower extent, -£0.40.
On Friday, EU Flash Manufacturing and Service CPI were both at 55, the Service one being higher than expected (53.7). No major stat today, US New Home Sales are expected at 665k. EURUSD is trading marginally higher to start the week, around 1.1660. GBPUSD is a tad down, trading around 1.3250.