Soybeans had a two sided session and managed to recover well, ending up +6.50 cents, However, Corn and Wheat closed down again by -1.25 cents and -16.00 cents respectively in Chicago. In Kansas, Wheat ended down -18.00 cents and -15.75 cents in Minneapolis. Minneapolis premium closed just at 56.75 cents above Chicago and 43.25 cents over Kansas, crazy to think it was $2 not that long ago! A tough day also across the Pond as MATIF and London Feed moved down on the back of the USDA WASDE bearishness and closed respectively -€6.00 and -£5.75. In Chicago, funds sold 8,000 Wheat and 2,000 Corn while they bought 4,000 Soybeans.
US export inspections were 462.9k for wheat, 3.82MT so far this season, compared to 6.18MT last year, considering US exports are set to raise by +3.38MT, this is not a good start. However, with the issues in Europe and Black Sea, US will certainly find some competitiveness after harvest is wrapped up. Corn shipments were solid with 1,261.9kT, 54.03MT so far this season, with a couple of weeks or so to go, 56.69MT should not be a problem. Soybeans shipments were 580.8kT, totalizing 53.95MT, need a strong ending to make the 56.06MT, but a miss would be insignificantly small.
Still in the US, spring wheat conditions were 75% G/E (74% last week, 33% last year) and 5% P/VP (6% last week, 42% last year). Corn conditions were 70% G/E (71% last week, 62% last year) and 10% P/VP (10% last week, 12% last year). So not massively better than last year but a much better yield, this can look contradictory… Soybeans are rated 66% G/E (67% last week, 59% last year) and 10% P/VP (10% last week, 12% last year). Same comment here… Has USDA overestimated corn and soybeans yields in the WASDE? Harvest is coming soon to provide answers! Winter wheat is 94% harvested, spring wheat 35%.
Night session is a bit lost, market is a bit shaken (not stirred) by the last couple of sessions: Soybeans is ticking sideways, Corn is up a couple of ticks, only wheat is posting a significant move: +5.00 cents in Chicago, in a retracement of the recent dip. Chart of Chicago Wheat U8 looks ugly to be honest but the level of 530 should act as a significant support. Kansas Wheat is up +3.50, while the Minneapolis curve is a mess, steepening, down on front month, up on back months. In Europe, also a retracement, +€1.25 con MATIF Wheat and +£0.50 for London Feed.
As the Oracle was predicting yesterday… GASC is in seeking wheat! In a double tender, shipments for the second half of September and shipments for the first half of October. The market correction also stimulated Iraq: they are seeking 50,000T of wheat with a new rule, trading house has to originate from their own countries. It will be tough for UAE or Switzerland trading houses! Jordan also is back, seeking 120,000T of wheat. Good luck everyone… Well, especially Jordan!
Bad news from China, Fixed Asset Investments (+5.5%) and Industrial Production (+6.0%) missed expectations (respectively 6.0% and 6.3%). Retail Sales were also a miss (+8.8% versus +9.2% expected) but to be fair, this is still outstanding. German Preliminary Quarterly GDP was a tick better than expected to +0.5%. German Final CPI as expected to 0.3%, French Final CPI as expected to -0.1%, UK average Earnings Index a tick worse than expected to +2.4% but Unemployment Rate better at 4.0% (4.2% expected). German ZEW better than expected at -13.7 (-20.1 expected) and Eurozone Industrial Production was down -0.7% (-0.3% expected). EURUSD is trading around 1.1390, GBPUSD just above 1.2775. Turkish Lyra has plunged on the back of Trump’s tariffs on Turkish steel, the currency has lost 30% of its value versus the US dollar just in August (72% YTD, the tariff decision is not really a scapegoat but fair to say the US is not responsible for all the Turkish economic issues, but this tariff decision is the sword thrust).