Another difficult day for Wheat as Chicago ended down -18.25 cents, Kansas -17.75 cents and Minneapolis -14.25 cents. Market is still wandering about as there is supply issue (notably in Europe and FSU) but at the same time a relatively early harvest in the North Hemisphere. The market mood will vary following Southern Hemisphere weather, particularly in Australia, and if Wheat was the hero on Friday it became the goat on Monday. European market followed and MATIF closed down -€2.50 and London Feed -£3.00. Back in Chicago, Corn and Soybeans were relatively uninteresting in comparison and closed down respectively -2.25 cents and +0.25 cent.
In Chicago, funds sold 5,500 Corn, 8,500 Wheat and were even in Soybeans.
ProFarmer Tour is on! Great account to follow on Twitter is Reuters’ Karen Braun (@kannbwx) live the tour like you were doing it. And yesterday she found a 83.6 bushel per acre field in Nebraska! You gotta love that part of the Tour, the hunt for the worst barbecued corn cob! Joke aside, the first day of the tour confirmed that it’s going to be a good crop. South Dakota corn yield is pegged at 178.0 bushels per acre (USDA is pegging it at 170 bushels per acre), up from 148.0 bushels per acre last year (last year actual was 145.0 bushels per acre) and the three year average for the tour is 154.6 bushels per acre. Good potential in South Dakota then! Soybeans pods count is also up to 1,024.7 pods (3 foot by 3 foot), above the 900.0 last year and above the 975.1 three year average. This is +13.86% from last year last yield was 43 bushels per acre this would trivially suggest 48.96 bushels per acre: 49 bushels per acre is the USDA estimates, quite spot on. The big usual ‘but’ is that only 69 fields of each were sampled. The size of the sample would not be deemed to be remotely representative in a real serious statistical study. The other leg of the tour was in Ohio: corn is pegged at 179.6 bushels per acre (USDA is pegging it at 180 bushels per acre) versus 164.6 bushels per acre last year (actual last year was 177 bushels per acre). On soybeans pods count, 1,248.2 versus 1,107.0 last year and 1,095.8 for the 3 year average… This is +12.76% from last year, last year yield was 49.5 bushels per acre, this would trivially suggest 55.81 bushels per acre: 56 bushels per acre is the USDA estimates, quite spot on again. Comment for Ohio is: it looks better than last year but will it match USDA current estimates? Bring on day 2!
US Weekly Crop Report showed crops have suffered a wee bit: spring wheat is rated 74% G/E (-1% from last week) and 5% P/VP (unchanged). Corn is rated 68% G/E (-2% from last week) and 12% P/VP (+2% from last week). Soybeans are rated 65% G/E (-1% from last week) and 11% P/VP (+1% from last week). It’s not the end of the world and it’s a fancy year compared to last year for sure! Winter wheat harvesting is reaching an end (97%) and spring wheat harvest is running ahead with 60% (35% last week, 55% last year, 44% on average).
US Export Inspections with less than 2 weeks to go for corn and soybeans… Corn shipment reached 1,096.6kT last week, to reach 55.13MT. 1.56MT required over 12 days. Should be fine, and a miss would be anecdotic anyway. Soybeans shipments posted a good (compared to last week) 639.0kT, 54.59MT with 12 days to go and still 1.47MT to ship… This will be a very tight call, but here again, quite anecdotic. Wheat inspections were low, 345.4kT, totalizing 4.21MT since the start of the season, it is running -37.81% behind last year, but US exports are set to raise by +13.78% year on year. Bad start for sure, but if Russia is banning exports, US wheat will find some competitiveness on the international trade for sure. So no reason to panic just yet.
Night session is in the red across the board with Wheat again showing the biggest early sign of weakness: -6.00 cents in Chicago, -3.50 cents in Kansas and -1.50 cents in Minneapolis. Corn is down a cent and Soybeans down a tick. On the other side of the Pond, MATIF Wheat has opened lower -€2.75 and London Feed -£2.50.
Japan is seeking 167,787T of food wheat, from US, Canada and Australia.
No major macro stat expected today, EURUSD is trading higher, jumping back above 1.15, the early August dip is now fully retraced. EURUSD is trading around 1.1530, GBPUSD up also in a lesser extent, trading around, 1.2825.