Yesterday ended up being another day in the red as Soybeans moved down -7.25 cents, Corn -1.75 cent and Wheat was slaughtered again: -15.50 cents in Chicago, -17.50 cents in Kansas and -16.00 cents in Minneapolis. MATIF Wheat was also down, -€3.75, closing below €200 on U8. London Feed was closed.
In Chicago, funds sold 6,000 Corn, 5,500 Soybeans and 8,000 Wheat.
It looked like today could have been a turnaround Tuesday as it seemed in early trading that the US night session was struggling to push further down, trading sideways and MATIF was finally rebounding after 6 sessions in a row on the downside. However, a trading day is not over until it’s actually over and MATIF is now actually fighting to stay in the green with the front month a couple of ticks up and the curve flat. London Feed is catching up on yesterday and is down -£2.25. In the US, Soybeans are down -8.50 cents, Corn down -1.75 cent and Wheat is up +2.00 cents or so across the different boards.
US Export Inspections were 488.2kT for wheat, it’s lagging 35% behind last year and on top of that exports are seen raising by +3.38MT (+13.78% year on year). The Hare and the Tortoise? Better have some momentum kicking in! Corn and beans did well on the last full week of the marketing year with respectively 1,245.1kT and 901.6kT, but it sound that they will both be a miss in theory as the last week needs are 4.58MT for corn and 1.93MT for soybeans. However, official Census number is expected to be 1.50M above for soybeans so the miss will be negligible, and 3.56MT above for corn, so a 1MT miss. The US S&D are already heavy anyway, so a little bit more… Whatever!
US Corn conditions are broadly unchanged with 68% G/E and 12% P/VP. Soybeans are a tad better, 66% G/E (+1% from last week) and 11% P/VP (unchanged). Spring wheat is 77% harvested, winter wheat is done and dusted.
When market goes down, GASC is in! And it is still all about Russian wheat, still the most competitive on CNF basis, it’s now a question a time, Russian Government will certainly put at least an export tax at some point as internal supply must be secured. Jordan bought 60,000T of barley, no joke! At $263 CNF. They are also seeking 120,000T of hard milling wheat.
The US dollar is not feeling the benefits of the US/Mexico trade deal and EURUSD is trading up, around 1.1715. GBPUSD is down, trading around 1.2885 and GBPEYR cross rate is fighting with the 1.10 level. No major stats today, just CB Consumer Confidence was better than expected to 133.4, but tomorrow could be interesting with US Preliminary Quarterly GDP expected at +4.0%