A relatively quiet Friday apart on Soybeans as they rebounded +9.75 cents. They seem to continue their technical retracement after visiting sub 820 cents levels last month. Else, Corn was up +0.75 cent, Wheat +3.00 cents in Chicago, +2.00 cents in Kansas, +1.50 cents in Minneapolis. MAIF was also relatively quiet, +€0.75 and London Feed +£0.70.
In Chicago, funds bought 7,500 Corn, 7,000 Soybeans and 2,500 Wheat. Over a week ending Tuesday, the CFTC’s COT showed funds sold 10,980 lots of Wheat, increasing their short position to 12,099 lots. But they bought respectively 55,015 lots of Corn and 14,211 lots of Soybeans, decreasing their short position to respectively 57,764 lots and 44,403 lots. From Wednesday to Friday, it’s estimated funds were quiet, buying 1,000 lots of Wheat, 7,500 lots of Corn and selling 500 lots of Soybeans.
Market is very cyclical in its fears. After a bit of ease, the drought damage fears are coming back (Australia mainly) and the export ban fears (Russia) as well. It dragged more or less everything up along the week: Soybeans ended up +2.78%, 3.34% for SoyMeal and +1.39% for SoyOil. Corn was up +3.37%. As per Wheat, up +2.36% in Chicago, +2.54% in Kansas, +3.28% in Minneapolis, +0.25% on MATIF in US dollar (EURUSD was down -0.73% though) and +2.52% in US dollar for London Feed (GBPUSD was up +0.72%).
Night session is very quiet as it’s Columbus day in the US, starting the week on a weaker note though: Soybeans are down -5.00 cents Corn -2.50 cents, Wheat -3.50 cents. On the other side of the Pond, MATIF is down -€0.75 and London Feed -£0.20.
After last week purchase of 180,000T of (still Russian) wheat, GASC said they have enough to last until the first week of February. In other words, they will be back pretty soon on tenders, and Russian will be keen to sell, making more and more necessary for the Russian authorities to at some point act on exports. They current operational slowdown for phytosanitary enforcement seems far from enough. Jordan is seeking 120,00T of barley, as usual it’s a tricky one, fall back scheme on the tender terms and payment terms are not making the countries tender very attractive…
German Industrial Production was down -0.3% month on month (for August then) versus +0.4% expected, previous was also revised to -1.3% from -1.1%. Third month in a row on the negative side, but it follows an unexpected rebound of +2.6% (well revised to +2.4%) for the month of May. Sentix Investor Confidence as expected today at 11.4. No major stats today, Canadian Thanksgiving, US Columbus day, although markets are opened, quite a lot of traders will still be in a week-end. The macro week will really kick-off on Wednesday with UK monthly GDP (expected at +0.1%), US PPI and Core PPI (both expected at +0.2%). EURUSD is starting the week on a weak note, back down below 1.15, trading around 1.1475. GBPUSD is down in a similar extent, trading just above 1.3050.