Weak day again as Soybeans closed down -10.75 cents, Corn -1.75 cents, Wheat -4.50 cents in Chicago, -3.25 cents in Kansas and -1.75 cents in Minneapolis. On the other side of the Pond, no exception, market was also very weak with MATIF Milling Wheat down -€0.75 and London Feed -£1.95.

 

Night session is more or less on the same kind of mood: Soybeans are down -4.00 cents, Corn -1.25 cent, Wheat -1.25 cent in Chicago. European markets are also quiet on the downside, MATIF Wheat a couple of ticks down and London Feed -£0.45.

 

Market is still digesting crop data and export data.

 

There was nothing much on crop data to be fair (Tuesday): corn G/E down -1% to 68%, P/VP unchanged at 12%. But the harvest is flying, 34% completed (+8% in a week), in front of last year (21%) and above 5 year average (26%). Soybeans conditions are unchanged: 68% G/E and 10% P/VP, 32% is harvested, a tad behind schedule but nothing to worry about, one cannot harvest soybeans and corn at the same time! Winter wheat is getting planted early, 57% is planted, early development as well as 30% has emerged.

 

US Export Inspections on Tuesday basically showed that US is paying the toll of big crops and trade wars… Double whammy! Soybeans shipments are down indeed -35% year on year so far, this is a -1.92MT shortage! US exports are expected to be down only by -3.29% year on year, ie. -1.91MT. In other words, pace needs now to be similar to last year. It’s gonna be a tough one! Wheat inspections are also a bit ugly, especially considering the cut in Russia and EU and potentially in Australia: US wheat should compete. Not right now as shipments are down so far -29% from one season to another, so far -2.98MT less has been exported. And exports are set to raise by +3.38MT year on year (ie +13.78%), so time to compete is now! Corn is the only one looking good…. A 2.22MT advance compared to last year while yearly export are set to decrease by -1.04% (0.64MT).

 

An the good news is… Today is the USDA WASDE day! What to expect? On the US production side, market is expecting another round of yield increase, increasing the corn and soybeans productions by respectively +0.86MT and +0.79MT. US ending stocks are expected to be raised by +3.63MT on corn (probably over the top, exports plus use surely won’t decrease by an aggregated -2.77MT), +1.39MT on soybeans (realistic considering struggling exports and higher production) and +0.54MT on wheat (realistic considering struggling exports). Worldwide, all balance sheets should become heavier, corn by an expected +2.3MT, soybeans by an expected +1.5MT and wheat by an expected +0.2MT. Cannot wait! Not long, be patient!

 

Japan managed to book feed barley on its SBS tender, 65,410T. Jordan also managed to book barley at $276 CNF, only 2 trade houses dared showing offers. Bangladesh is still considering offers on its wheat tender, best offer is $279.20 CNF FO.

 

UK GDP was unchanged month on month yesterday. If it was a tick below expectations, previous was corrected up by a tick. So pretty neutral. However, UK Manufacturing Production was down -0.2% month on month, it was expected at +0.1% and previous, again, was corrected from -0.2% to flat, so a tad negative overall. US PPI was as expected at +0.2%. RUSD is trading above 1.5550, GBPUSD just below 1.32.

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