Friday was a typical sideways session with Soybeans ending down -6.50 cents, they don’t really know where to go with all this trade talks news and fake news and the don’t manage to escape significantly from the 900 cents levels. Market want to see if shipments to China are actually really restarting. Wheat was also down, -6.00 cents in Chicago, correcting from the day before, it cannot complain, they have posted a 50 cents rally in a few weeks. In Kansas, it ended down -1.75 cent, -4.25 cents in Minneapolis. In Europe, MATIF was down -€0.75 and London Feed up +£0.90.

 

In Chicago, funds sold 6,000 Soybeans, 4,500 Wheat and bought 4,000 Corn.

 

A mixed week that was driven by USDA WASDE, trade war talks, Brexit,… But nothing much in the grand scheme of things, market is in a kind of free wheel before the holidays. Soybeans moved down -1.77%, SoyMeal -1.25% and SoyOil -0.87%. Canola/Rapeseed market were down in the same extent, -2.05% in the ICE in US dollar (USDCAD was up +0.47%) and -1.34% on MATIF (EURUSD was down -0.61%). On Corn, relative indifference, -0.13% in Chicago and +0.25% on MATIF in US dollar. Wheat was a bit scattered: +0.09% in Chicago, +1.24% in Kansas, +0.55% in Minneapolis and +0.97% in MATIF in US dollar. The attraction was London Feed with +1.12% in US dollar as GBPUSD moved down -1.12%, blame Brexit and latest and final Scottish Government crop (2018) estimates.

 

Night session is strong across the board with Soybeans up +4.50 cents, Corn up +1.00 cent, Wheat up +5.25 cents in Chicago and Kansas, +3.50 cent in Minneapolis. Europe also opened on strong basis with MATIF up +€1.25 and London Feed +£0.15.

 

Jordan is seeking 120,000T of wheat, whoever has ever seen the tender spec is getting why it’s like Groundhog day… Punitive spec and tough payment terms. Good luck! To be fair, they managed to purchase 60,000T of barley last week. After buying 180,000T of wheat last week, GASC is in for soybean oil and sunflower oil.

 

Otherwise, still Brexit entertainment with Theresa May rejecting the idea of a new referendum. Well they have lost one, they don’t want to lose a second one! And to be fair, it would need to be three way Deal/NoDeal/Remain referendum and this is way too complicated. They justify because of betrayal of people voice: in what would it? And what’s wrong with betraying the people anyway? France said ‘No’ to Lisbon treaty and Parliament founded its way anyway, people forgive, people forget, people don’t understand… Most of the time people vote against something or someone or vote for something for the wrong reasons. So there’s always a way out. Issue is UK parliament is overwhelmingly against the PM’s deal but there is no consensus about the alternative: remain, no deal, extension or Article 50? An impasse… By the meantime, GBPUSD was trading in the 1.30’s a couple on month ago, it’s now around 1.26. EURUSD is trading 1.1335, GBPEUR cross rate around 1.11.

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